How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2013
Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.
BIOENERGY
CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION
agriculture
BIODIVERSITY
food security
CARBON
ecosystem services
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
GLOBAL AGRICULTURE
ENERGY
mitigation
AFOLU
GHG
WATER MANAGEMENT
SOIL
climate
FREE-MARKET APPROACH
forestry
Författare
P. Smith
University of Aberdeen
H. Haberl
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
A. Popp
Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung
K. H. Erb
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
C. Lauk
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
R. Harper
Murdoch University
F. N. Tubiello
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
A. D. Pinto
Universidade de Brasilia
M. Jafari
Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Tehran
S. Sohi
University of Edinburgh
O. Masera
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas
H. Bottcher
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Göran Berndes
Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori
M. Bustamante
Universidade de Brasilia
H. Ahammad
Australian Government
H. Clark
AgResearch Grasslands Research Centre
H. M. Dong
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
E. A. Elsiddig
Khartoum University
C. Mbow
World Agroforestry Centre
N. H. Ravindranath
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
C. W. Rice
Kansas State University
C. Robledo-Abad
Institute for Environmental Decisions
Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation
A. Romanovskaya
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology
F. Sperling
African Development Bank Tunis
M. Herrero
International Livestock Research Institute Nairobi
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
J. I. House
University of Bristol
S. Rose
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
Global Change Biology
1354-1013 (ISSN) 1365-2486 (eISSN)
Vol. 19 8 2285-2302Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2011)
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
DOI
10.1111/gcb.12160