Characteristics of future crashes in Sweden – identifying road safety challenges in 2020 and 2030

Paper in proceeding, 2016

It has been proposed by the European Commission that the number of road fatalities within the European Union should move close to zero by 2050. In response to that, Sweden has set out to revise the national road safety targets of 2020 and 2030. In order to address future safety challenges, there is a need to consider the characteristics of future crashes. The objective of this study was therefore to quantify and investigate the characteristics of severe crashes in 2020 and 2030. Injury crashes were reduced from a baseline in 2014 to a given time in the future based on the implementation of safety interventions. The material consisted of hospital admission data with AIS diagnoses. Results show that the actions planned to be taken in Sweden between now and 2020 and 2030 will continue to increase the safety level for car occupants, but are estimated to be insufficient for vulnerable road users. It was concluded that there is a need to define a safety system for vulnerable road users that takes a holistic approach to sustainability by including both injury prevention measures and measures to encourage more health-promoting and fossil-free modes of transport.